Czy ziGreen energy, może przezwyciężyć ropę naftową?

Czy ziGreen energy, może przezwyciężyć ropę naftową?

28 Oct 2018

The global energy industry can change and act quickly. After years of global domination, it seems that traditional energy may lose some of its shine. Is there a risk that we will be dethroned by alternative, so-called "Green" energies?

Many countries change the way they think and act. For example, Germany is at the forefront in this field, making massive investments in wind, solar and biomass. In 2018, Greece launched a USD 3.6 billion program for solar and wind projects. Many other countries have already joined this trend. Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are investing in solar energy, and what happens when solar capacity increases? That's right - the price goes down *. According to Bloomberg, the price of solar energy has fallen by over 60% since 2009, and solar energy is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. In 2017, the US Department of Renewable Energy Laboratory has an additional 20% price reduction by 2020 *.

The automotive industry is also changing. The growth of electric vehicles, in particular GM and Tesla, who are working on so-called "inexpensive" electric vehicles, can have a significant impact. Many traditional car companies, such as Volkswagen, Renault-Nissan, General Motors, Ford, Daimler and BMW, are already investing a lot of cash in electric vehicles **. Even Ferrari president Sergio Marchionne, who has been a skeptic of the electric vehicle industry for years, admitted he changed his mind ***.

The emissions scandal has certainly played a role in this transformation, as well as in a number of regulatory investigations and restrictions. China, a leading global greenhouse gas emitter, has joined the efforts of environmentalists by implementing a massive policy to reduce carbon emissions and setting ambitious goals to address this.

This is particularly important because, according to IHS Markit, 30% to 50% of world oil production is used by cars. Some predict that around 20 million electric cars will appear on the road by 2025, and by 2040 electric vehicles will account for 30% of new car sales ****. This is a fairly large increase from 1% today and could potentially affect the global demand for oil.

Don't say goodbye to oil yet. The industry that has moved the world forward is still in high demand and so far remains an effective and relatively cheap solution. OPEC's efforts to raise oil prices - in particular in connection with the 2016 agreement on supply restrictions - have paid off to some extent, as the following table shows.

One of the main advantages of this industry - as opposed to Green Energy - is that it is not dependent on weather or daytime conditions. Of course, technological advances can improve Green energy's storage capacity, but it doesn't matter much. It is also important to emphasize that while OPEC and other oil exporting countries have a big interest in maintaining the status quo, there are many industries that can benefit on shift.

Do you want some examples? Let's take a look at a few.
This has happened with Tesla's actions in recent years:

Tesla chart

And this is Gamesa, a Spanish company specializing in wind turbines and wind farms.

Gamesa chart

There is no doubt that oil and Green Energies are currently the subject of a major battle. Who will eventually gain the advantage? Time will tell, but if you think you know the answer, you can always choose to trade according to your expectations.

 

* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheapest-power-on-earth-look-skyward-as-coal-falls-to-solar
** https: // www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-factbox/factbox-automakers-get-serious-about-electric-cars-idUSKBN1DH28A 
*** https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/16/ 16897770 / ferrari-electric-supercar-suv-marchingnene-tesla
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/soon-electric-vehicles-could-cause-an-oil-crisis-. html

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